Dearbail Jordan
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The number of new housing starts in the first quarter of 2008 fell by nearly 25 per cent compared to last year as the rising cost of mortgages and falling house prices took their toll on the British construction industry.
The Department of Communities and Local Government today said the number of new house builds fell by 24.4 per cent to 32,144 in January to March on the first quarter last year, and shrank by 21.5 per cent compared to the final three months of 2007.
The figures also revealed that housing completions in the first quarter fell by 18.4 per cent compared to 2008, and by 12.3 per cent on the final three months of 2007.
Earlier this week, the Council of Mortgage Lenders released data showing that the number of new mortgages borrowed by first-time buyers and existing homeowners fell to the lowest level in more than three decades, declining to 142,000 - the lowest since 1975 and below the 146,000 recorded in 1992 at the height of the last recession.
Also, the Government inadvertently revealed that UK house prices will fall by up to 10 per cent "at best" this year, when Caroline Flint, the Housing Minister, accidently allowed internal briefing notes to be photographed on her way into a Cabinet meeting.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, said: "The sharp slump in housing starts in the first quarter reflects housebuilders' deep concern about the outlook for the sector, as activity and prices buckle under the toxic combination of elevated affordability pressures and very tight lending conditions.
"Furthermore, the situation is likely to deteriorate further as the housebuilding index in the April purchasing managers survey for the construction industry indicated that housebuilding activity contracted for a fifth successive month and at the sharpest rate in the survey's history."
This week, Barratt Developments, Britain's second largest house builder, warned on profits after reservations for its new homes fell by half and an increasing number of buyers pulled out of purchases.
The value of Barratt's book of forward orders, which includes reservations and exchanges on house purchases, fell by 26 per cent on the £2.1 billion booked this time last year.
Last month, Persimmon, Britain's biggest housebuilder, said it would stop building homes on new sites until mortgage conditions improve after revealing that sales from January to March had fallen by 24 per cent.
Rival housebuilders have also disclosed falling order numbers. Taylor Wimpey recently admitted that its forward order book had fallen by 26 per cent, and Redrow reported a 34.5 per cent fall in first-half profits and gave warning of worse to come.
The Government is attempting to boost the housing market and this week announced that all first-time buyers earning less than £60,000 a year are now eligible for the Government’s shared ownership and shared equity schemes.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown also said £200 million would go towards buying new properties either for first time buyers to purchase through the HomeBuy scheme or for social rent.
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The price of almost everything we buy in society is 'Energy' driven. The price of oil is going thru the roof and will continue to do so ad infinitum. Hard assets such as a house , land, etc will skyrocket in value in the not too distant future.
stuart hamilton, vancouver, canada
Simple: houses are overvalued due to irrational exuberance of estate agents, valuers, property developers and cheap loans. Still some find it diffcult to see the handwriting on the wall. The IMF said 30% overvalue/fundamentals. CML says it's 7%. RICS said roughly the same. I expect 15% cheaper by 09
MBO, London,
Helen,
Simply put, people are either staying put and making do with where they live now for the time being or (like me) they're moving in to rented accomodation.
C. Hale, Worcester,
Helen, Norwich. Where they were living before, with relatives, in B&B, in accommodation that's too small and crowded, on the street.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
If a house costs 50k to build theyll just have to reduce their prices. These threats to halt building are just attempts to get government intervention in a hope to bring back the golden days.
If they could run a profitable buniess when houses cost 50% why not today?
A Nelson, Prague, Czech
but don't worry footsie is up!!!!!!! and thats all we need as long as the stock index drives higher.
we are effectively in recession but stock indexes are up and up and up which means everything is fine.
i wonder if they truly reflect the state of the economy or are they just gimmicks ?
ebbi britt, valencia,
While the banks now have to act more responsible in whom they lend too, the other inhibitor is the lack of churn in the ready built market. The 2 markets work hand in hand. The inhibitor for the ready built market is not just the lenders; its also the pointless expenditure by the vendor on the HIPs certificate. Only a total inept nutter would believe a report bought and paid for by a vendor.
Maybe the government should stand in as guarantors for any losses that maybe incurred by the purchaser.
Ian Bryan, Reading,
More evidence that there is going to be a very deep recession. Mervin King was hiding the truth yesterday to avoid panic. But not to worry. There will be some winners. I am looking to buy a £600,000 house. I'll move in with an offer when the price reaches £200,000. You think no way? Just watch it.
Bob, Guildford,
Whilst the supply of housebuilders' raw material (land) is controlled by public policy, the value of their product is controlled by market conditions. Government needs to do more to facilitate the provision of new homes in the UK by increasing land supply and working with financial institutions.
Sarah , Manchester,
The supply of housebuilders raw material (land) is controlled by public policy whilst the value of their end product is controlled by market conditions. Government needs to facilitate housing provision by releasing more developable land and working with financial instituions
Sarah , Manchester,
Housebuilders have sold poorly built flats/houses at inflated prices for the last 10 years, and they continue to do so. The prices (and profit margins) get bigger while the flats get smaller. The people who advise on the purchases are uneducated cheap labour force. Let them suffer.
steve, ealing,
The 25% drop in housing starts will be more than 50% by the summer as no large sites have started since April. This equates to less than 100,000 homes being built this year or half of last years. This is a £20 Billion loss to the economy and about 150,000 jobs, not so funny now?
Steve Nicholls, Huntingdon, England
with the current prices, £200 million won't buy too many homes.
roger, london,
Housebuilders should react to the changing market conditions just like everyone else. New homes by major housebuilders are overpriced in the current market and tiny compared to older houses. Persimmon's profits increased by 117% between 2002-06, Barratts by 78%. No need to feel sorry for them...
Anna, Glos,
Alice, Poole is for retired millionaires- it is little wonder you are struggling. Sometimes people have to move to find a happier life.
barry wiseman, bromley, kent
UK: Housing shortage hype was only contrived by the estate agents and developers to bump up the prices; so they could get more commision - it wouldn't have taken an Einstein to work that one out!
pat, FL USA ex-pat,
Helen, in Poole, Dorset we are living in tents and caravans. 13 year wait for a council house and that is with a child of 14. Wish this governement would wake up and smell the coffee. Rents are sky here too, and cheap flats are like gold-dust.
alice, poole, uk
25% less starts and slow work on all the other sites means 50% less builders. This means they can take twice as long over everything and do the jobs properly at last!
And they might at least turn-up when they commit !
I'm with Eddie Shah on the subject of Builders.
Pedro, Stratford,
Yet another genius use of our money from Gordon Brown.
Don't worry about your pension, your helathcare, the price of food of fuel, all you have to do is be a big businss and fail, and Gordy will come to your rescue.
Bailing out developers encourages mismanagement not fixes it.
Barrat Rock, Northern,
There is no housing shortage. Apparently there are 700,000 empty homes in England alone. Any talk of shortages was presumeably only there to pump up the market. The shortage is affordable housing but this looks to be going to change with the housing crash.
chris, brighton,
So much for the shortage of housing myth. I agree there has been a shortage of affordable housing but not a physical one, or we would have countless families on the street.
1 in 20 houses stand empty.
The same mysterious 'housing shortages' in the late eighties disappeared after the crash.
Lenny, Coventry,
With half a million Polish returning back to their country. Doesn't that mean there is significantly lower demand for property? The credit crunch and property prices falling is also scaring away potential first time property buyers.
Someone is obviously getting their figures wrong!
Adam, Bradford, UK
We are always told that the population surge is creating a 'desperate' housing shortage. If the figures quoted in this report are true, where is the population living?
helen, Norwich,