Anne Ashworth
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The first anniversary of the entry of the term “credit crunch” into the language was marked by larger-than-expected losses from Northern Rock, an increase in repossessions and news that stamp duty might be suspended - a move supposed to make all the other bad stuff not seem quite so gloomy. But prospective first-time buyers who would be the beneficiaries of the abolition of stamp duty on homes between £125,000 and £250,000 may not view the concession in the way that the Government hopes.
For one thing, the repossession figures tell the unhappy story of those who rushed into homeownership encouraged by an dangerously attractive incentive - such as a Northern Rock 125 per cent Together loan.
Such mortgages are no longer available, but, then, even lower loan-to-value deals are scarce - a far greater disincentive to homeownership than stamp duty, especially since the proposals for a freeze are wonderfully vague. For example, the tax may be only be deferred and, whatever the form the concession takes, details will not emerge until autumn.
In the interim, would-be owner occupiers may be even more inclined to wait for prices to decline further rather than commit - as the Government hopes. There are now fears that some chains could collapse as the first-time buyer at the beginning of the interconnected series of transactions retreats rather than write a cheque for £2,499. This is the stamp duty payable on a £249,950 property.
But if first-time buyers decide to bide their time they should be aware of the risks of this strategy. If stamp duty is frozen, say, with effect from November 30, this could turn out to be a deadline by which investors will compete to snap up bargain-priced properties before the novices join the fray, possibly bidding up values. Many investors are said to be insanely anxious not “to miss the floor”, the point at which prices stop sliding; they could see the stamp duty holiday as that moment.
If the Government truly aspired to help first-time buyers, it would completely reform stamp duty. It is unfair that the rate jumps from 1 per cent to 3 per cent at £250,001 - forcing the buyer of a £250,950 home to pay a bill of £7,528 - £5,209 more than the tax on the £249,950 purchase. But what's the betting that the consequent loss of revenue will probably mean that ministers decide that first-time buyers are not such a priority, after all?
Hobbit hell-hole
A much-publicised development of 31 homes in Oregon inspired by The Lord of the Rings has proved to be less than successful, despite such features as hobbit holes. Maybe not many buyers entertained a fantasy of themselves as short and hairy and with names like Bilbo or Frodo. Or maybe it was just the curse of the credit crunch.
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HSBC survey has found that it isn't the difficulty of obtaining a mortgage, it is that people are waiting for significant price drops before purchasing. Admittedly the govt should make clear its intentions regarding stamp duty but really the govt should be looking at job creation not house prices.
Nan, Reading, UK
'Many investors are said to be insanely anxious not to miss the floor'. Said by whom? Anne Ashworth? Anyone who is anxious about missing the floor doesn't know any history. After 1989 house prices fell for 3.5 years, then were stationary for another three years. Plenty of time to buy in 2010-2013.
Keith, Durham,
Replace stamp duty with CGT paid by the vendor. Gets back some of the bubble gains, decreases the incentive to speculate. Use the money to build more council houses in nice Tory areas, maintain those that exist already. Repeal right-to-buy first though. Must stop giving away public assetts.
Fred, Yorkshire, England
Bill: "the result of which has been £1m of equity since '92"
So how is that 800k of equity looking now? And are you planning to spend your 700k of equity this year, or are you waiting to blow all 500k of it next year?
Robert S. McNamara, Washington, US
Dear House Price conspirators, you are talking to yourselves now, no one else is listening! Some of us think longer term, the result of which has been £1m of equity since '92. Work harder and learn how markets work, or keep renting fellas.
Bill, London, UK
The actions of greedy BTL "investors" over the last few years have created this havoc in the housing market.Council Tax should be restructured so that an individuals 2nd property has 200% council tax charge ,3rd property 300% and so on.
Colin, Stockton, England
If prices for a starter home fall below £125k then stamp duty won't be a problem anyway. The answer is prices falling to sensible levels as they are out of touch with reality. If it takes approx 2 years of man-hours to build a property then surely they should cost just above 2 years salary.
Dave, London, UK
Maybe stamp duty should be abolished for home owners and doubled for the 'investors' who have wreaked so much misery on first time buyers.
Maybe interest relief on mortgages for BTL locusts should also be abolished - an income generator and vote winner I'm sure.
Gareth Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany
Why meddle with the stamp duty?
Let market find its level. There is no god given right to buy a property. Encouraging this madness has landed us in these problems.
Why should the tax payers subside the first time buyers?
Yaz, London, UK
Apart from the allieteration what exactly is the difference between the "Credit Crunch" and the "Credit Squeezes" which we used to have? It appears that the consequences are the same.
Neil, Gloucestershire, England
Last night Newsnight reported that house prices continued to fall after Lamont introduced the last stamp price holiday in ~ 91. So he withdrew it, only for house prices to continue to fall.
Your desparation amuses me.
Robert, Hull,
Anne Ashworth,
Still trying to convince readers to buy to suit your vested interests?
The excuse this time: the investors will beat you novices to it AGAIN...
Damn those guys are so smart!
But you can get in there with them, if you start buying as soon as stamp duty is supended...
Give us a break.
JB, Seef, Bahrain
Houses are overpriced, Stamp Duty fiddling won't alter this basic fact
cap, London, UK
Property journalists should recognise banks think houses are overvalued. For transactions to increase, everyone needs to lower their price by 25%. Banks would be willing to lend, people would save on interest payments and stamp duty and estate agents would keep their jobs. Think of it as a SALE.
Rob H, London,
um, investors? really?
Any 'economics' article (which admittedly this isn't anyway) shouldn't use the words canny or savvy, esp as 'canny and savvy' people tend to do the opposite of what columns like this suggest. they most certainly do not enter a capital depreciating market with pitiiful yields
ryan, huddersfield, west yorkshire